|Written by Muhaimin Iqbal|
|Tuesday, 30 March 2010 06:47|
Konsep yang mudah untuk dipahami bersamaan dengan teori ini adalah adanya konsep waktu paruh (half-life), yaitu waktu yang diperlukan materi subjek peluruhan eksponensial untuk menjadi tinggal separuhnya dari materi semula.
Pada tahun 1970, ketika emas masih dijadikan standar mata uang dunia dalam perjanjian Breton Woods harga emas dunia berada pada angka US$ 35.94/Oz. Dengan nilai tukar Rupiah Rp 415/US$; maka harga emas saat itu di Indonesia berada di kisaran Rp 480/gram
Berdasar grafik Nilai Sisa setelah waktu paruh ke N = 100%/2^N disamping ; kita akan tahu dimana posisi US$ dan posisi Rupiah setelah 40 tahun US$ kini berada pada waktu paruh antara ke 4 menuju waktu paruh ke 5; dengan kata lain US$ memiliki waktu paruh sekitar 8.9 tahun.
Saat ini dengan uang Rp 327,000 Anda dapat belikan 1 gram emas; maka dengan uang yang sama 4.2 tahun lagi hanya bisa membeli ½ gram emas, setelah 8.4 tahun lagi, tinggal setara ¼ gram emas.
The report says that developing countries have been hit by the U.S. dollar's loss of value in recent years. Selengkapnya .....
Thursday, May 13, 2010 – by Staff ReportCentral banks are losing credibility ... Whether or not one believes that the €750bn European rescue plan will stabilise financial markets, its consequences for Europe's economies are surely negative. Indeed, while many cheered the initial rebound in equity markets, the reactions in currency markets on the first trading day after the announcement were a harbinger of these negative consequences: the initial gains of the euro were erased by the end of the trading session. Of course, the bail-out for holders of Greek government debt – and now possibly Spanish and Portuguese government debt – raises familiar problems of moral hazard that will increase risk-taking and encourage irresponsible government policy in the future. The loans and loan guarantees from other countries in Europe do not deal with the simple fact that the Greek government cannot service its debt and will eventually need to restructure it. At best the package gives officials some breathing room as they endeavour to reduce deficits and eventually restructure debts, though it is more likely that the adjustment problem will be made worse by being pushed down the road. But most worrisome for the euro, and the likely reason for its remarkable reversal in the currency markets on day one, is the agreement by the European Central Bank to buy the debt of the countries with troublesome debt burdens, just days after it said it would not engage in such purchases. This agreement raises questions about the independence of the ECB, thereby creating political obstacles to the conduct of good monetary policy in the future. – Financial Times
Free-Market Analysis: Is the Western world struggling through a bad patch? Our argument, voiced with various levels of clarity at various times, is that the West is currently living through a failure of fiat money – specifically a failure of the global anchor currency: the greenback. The dollar is on its way out not because people want it to be necessarily (though some do) but simply because it is failing as a fiat currency. Central bank fiat currencies always fail. China had a number of fiat episodes and the populace was so scarred that fiat money was reportedly even banned in the 1800s. Here's a bit of history on China's melancholy brushes with unbacked paper money... Read More ...